All about draft day

Well they have arrived, gentleman(and all six of you women who actually PLAY fantasy football, instead of drafting players according to how much your temperature goes up when you see them shirtless). Draft days have come, and even though I recommend waiting until the after the second preseason game to hold a draft, literally thousands of people have already locked in their lineup. If you haven't yet, however, wait. Seriously, wait until after preseason week two, dumb-dumb. You never know what could happen between now and then, with OTA's, training camp, and two preseason games(well, two quarters for starters). Hell, Steve Smith just broke his arm playing flag football at his children's camp, and Vincent Jackson got hit with a three game suspension for violating the NFL's banned substance policy. Not to mention the tiff between him and the Chargers over his contract. WAIT as long as possible! You really don't want to blow your season before it even starts, do you, secret self-saboteur? Well, if you insist on being an idiot and risking it anyway, here is the player advice I've prepared already( I didn't say don't start preparing tard, I said don't draft yet. Pfft)

And with the number one overall pick...

Too easy. Everyone has been debating whether to take Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson first, and Chris Johnson is listed on every fantasy game site(yeah you, Yahoo)as the number one overall player. Well listen closely everyone: THEY ARE WRONG!!! If you are picking anywhere in the top five positions and take CJ, punch yourself in the face. Yes, he had an amazing season last year, we get it. But NO running back in the history of the NFL has even topped 1,500 yards after a 2,000 yard season. Only Erick Dickerson managed to score double digit TD's the following year(12, compared to 14 the previous year), while Jamal Lewis scored 7(14 the year prior),and none of the others(OJ Simpson, Terrell Davis, and Barry Sanders) managed to score even 5 TD's after their historic seasons. Add that to the +300-carry curse, in which RB's tend to be injury prone or suffer a huge drop in production after a 300-carry season (CJ had 368 on '09),and throw in a contract dispute with the Titans, and he's doomed to be a bust if you draft him number one.

My two number ones...

Adrian Peterson OR MJD

I know AP was the obvious choice, but this was a close one. MJD almost got pushed down because of the 312 carries he had last year(see +300-carry curse, above),
but the fact that it was his first season as the premier back alleviated that worry. Add his almost 1,400 yard, 15 TD season with his versatility as a pass catcher, the Jaguars' upgrading of their defense with the signing of Kampmann(better D equals more Time of possession), and an improving O-line, Maurice has nowhere to go but up.

2010 Draft Busts: Players to stay away from

Chris Johnson: I know he's listed as the number one fantasy player, but did you read about him above? Look, I'm not saying don't draft him in the SECOND round, or even late in the first...just know that he may hold out into the season, and he's not coming anywhere remotely close to 2009 numbers.

Vincent Jackson: Another guy with contract issues. Only his are the size of King Kong, and standing between him and the field in 2010. He already got slapped with a three game suspension earlier today(although he may file an appeal and get it overturned) for violating league substance abuse policies. The more important note here is that he's already announced he is prepared to hold out until November. That's 10 games! Not to mention after a break like that, it's almost impossible that he could come back in shape and contribute the way he did last year. At best, take him in the 7th-8th rounds, after you've already drafted solid receivers.

Larry Fitzgerald: I know, I know! No injuries, no contract disputes, anything. This guy is one of the greatest talents in the league, without question. The problem is his Quarterback. He's not catching a ball thrown from the stone-cold, gloved hand of a Hall-of-Fame QB anymore. He'll be trying to catch balls from the shaky, unproven hand of Matt Leinart. He may come out and prove that the Cards made the right choice drafting him a few years ago. But do you really want to risk it? Go with another elite reciever...one with a proven ball-tosser

Guys whose stock should be higher(pay attention idiots!)

Miles Austin: Oh yeah. This guy changed a lot of owner's fortunes last year(including mine). I managed to pick him up in week 4, when Roy Williams' health became questionable, and started him against KC. Need I say more? This year, you won't have to wait week 5 to get some production out of him. This guy is someone you should consider at the end of the first round or early in the second.

Jay Cutler: Yes he threw a career-high 27 INT's last year. Sure, he did little to impress anyone. But remember '08? Ok then. This year, he has chemistry with his receivers. Devin Aramashodu came on in the last three games as JC's new favorite target. And now he has Mike Martz, producer of the "Greatest show on Turf". And you can get this guy super late in the draft. Believe me, this year Cutler's turning Chi-town on its head. In a good way.

Ray Rice: Hell Yes! R&R had a great year last year...but this year could be phenomenal. The addition of Anquan Boldin will scare defenses into playing the pass a little more often(as well as Flacco's continued improvement), and Rice-eroni(I'm trying to give every player I mention a nickname) will take advantage. Willis McGahee won't steal as many goal-line carries now that Ray has proven himself, so take this guy in the first round. He almost got my stamp of approval for the number one overall pick. If he's there for you in the first round,take him.

Sleepers to get on draft day

Justin Forsett: No doubt about it, this guy in a buy-low, deliver high guarantee. Last year when he stepped in for the injured Julius Jones, he was electrifying. Even when Jones came back and took the majority of the carries, Forsett was still out-producing him. But now Pete Carroll is calling the shots in Seattle, and Forsett will be the guy. Leon Washington will steal a few carries once he's healthy, but Forsett is the clear number one. Easily a strong RB2 option, so even if you draft him as a bench player, he'll be there when you need him, and he may just usurp one of your starters.

CJ Spiller: Yes, the Buffalo Bills RB depth chart is migraine-inducing. Fred Jackson, Marshawn Lynch, both really good backs. But I know one thing for certain: The Bills wouldn't have moved up to take this guy in the first round, ignoring other glaring needs, if they didn't plan on making him THE man at some point in his rookie season. Hold off until the later rounds, but if you already have two starting RBs, snatch this guy up for a rainy day.

Dez Bryant: The Cowboys stole this guy in the NFL draft. He was a top 5 talent with speculation about his maturity, so he fell in their lap. And now the 'Boys plan on capitalizing. This guy will be taking Roy Williams' looks starting week 1. He'll be the number 2 WR on the roster very shortly, and has the potential opposite of Miles Austin to be a Fitzgerald/Boldin 1-2 punch, but better.


Now stop begging, you slow-minded fantasy owners. That's all I'm giving you this week. Check back next week for my top 5 CHEAP defenses, and QB's that can get you the win without having to blow a pick on them before the 4th round. E-mail any questions you want answered to a.wilkersonjr@yahoo.com, and I'll try to answer them next week. Peace, mo-fos.