We're back! The 2012 fantasy football season has arrived, and I'm here to help you win your league (and rub it in your competitor's faces). Check in weekly for hot waiver wire pick-ups, sleepers of the week, sit/start recommendations, and match-up advice. I will also field email regarding questions and advice for your specific roster, and will be hosting live video advice chats prior to opening kickoff on Sundays once the season begins!
Hello again, and welcome back for another weekly update here at Fourth and Goal. Now as we all know, there's just no such thing as a 100 percent guarantee in fantasy football. Ask Tom Brady owners from 2008. Or the unfortunate people who drafted Matt Forte as their RB1 last season. Everyone who's had Roy Williams on their fantasy roster since he became a Cowboy. I could go on, but no need: a player has let all of us down as some point. For me, it was DeSean Jackson's premature celebration in '08. Now, having said that, here are five things that I am absolutely positive will happen during the 2010 NFL season. If you were to believe in a sure thing, these are the ones you want your money riding on.
5.) Maurice Jones-Drew will be the 2010 rushing leader
Don't make that face at me. MJD will get this done. Last season, with a bad passing game, really bad defense, and even worse O-line, he still managed to gain 1,391 yards on the ground, and averaged 4.5 YPC. This year, the Jags are a little different. Last season's two rookie linemen, Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton, have a year under their belts. Veterans Kynan Forney and Justin Smiley were added in the offseason, providing a depth on the O-line the Jags haven't had before. David Garrard is looking to improve this season, and the evolution of Mike Sims-Walker should unload the box some this season against the run. I'm predicting close to 1,800 yards and an average of 5.3 YPC. Put it in the books. If you don't believe me, just look at what MJD is capable of.
4.) Kyle Orton will lose the starting job in Denver...and so will Matt Moore in Carolina
No big surprises here, right? Obviously, Orton was never meant to be the long-term solution at QB for the Broncos. But it's not if he loses the starting job(for he will), but when. Any early-season implosion will likely put Brady Quinn under center, while if he makes it to the waning weeks of the season, Tim Tebow will likely get the opportunity to start working towards next season. Now Matt Moore is an entirely different story. I actually like Moore. Last season he took over as the starting QB, and over five games completed 61.7% of his passes for 1,053 yards, 8 touchdowns, and only 2 interceptions. The problem for him is Jimmy Clausen. Clausen has been impressive so far in the preseason, including making a strong case for himself Thursday night against the Ravens. If Matt Moore has even a few sub-par games, expect Clausen to get the nod.
Again, no one will faint in shock when this prediction comes true. Matt Leinart may be listed on the Cardinals' roster as a quarterback, but he's a professional ball-dropper. Remember the 2008 preseason, when he basically handed the starting job back to Kurt Warner? Expect the same thing, just over a longer period of time, since Derek Anderson isn't great either. Best case scenario, he becomes an average signal caller, and keeps the starting job for a season or two. But he'll never live up to being the 10th overall draft pick. By the way, check out LOL Jocks for more awesome pictures like this one.
2.) The Cowboys will win more than one playoff game
Last season, Dallas put all the pieces together at the right time, going 8-3 after their week six bye. Their defense stepped up, Miles Austin became a monster Wide receiver, and guys like Mike Jenkins and Anthony Spencer became leaders. Look for that to continue this season, as the defense should be even better this season, and Dez Bryant gives a versatile offense another weapon to force opposing D's to consider. They also managed to beat the Eagles 34-14 in the opening round of the playoffs, notching their first playoff win since 1996. They're looking to expand on that, and don't be surprised when the 'Boys show up in the NFC championship game. I'll be the guy on this website typing "I told you so." And in case you forgot just how good Dallas can be, here's a reminder: Their week 15 victory over the eventual world champion Saints.
1.) Brett Farve will play for the Vikings
Does anyone still believe the hoopla about Brett Farve toying with retirement? Look, if he were retiring, he wouldn't have had ankle surgery during the offseason. Let's call it what it is: An old guy that doesn't want to go through training camp. He'll be back on the field for the Vikes, and he'll be trying to get them back to within a game of the Super Bowl. Honestly, I don't mind the old fella skipping training camp, as long as he can still do this.
Well, that will do it for this week people. Check back next week to see what's we've got going on, and get ready for the regular season live video broadcasts. Peace.
Welcome back readers! If you couldn't tell by my pleasant, insult-less greeting, I'm in a great mood this week. Training camps are under way, Farvewatch is back for a third season(it really should be a reality TV show), and everyone still hates Matt Leinart. All is right in the world. But, since all we've heard the last few days is who all has been limping around the practice fields, I'll be providing updates on some of those injuries, as well as the outlooks for those players. Oh, and remember when I said don't draft your fantasy football team yet? This is why.
On Saturday, the Eagles' start wide receiver twisted around to make a catch, straining his back. It was a non-contact injury, and he was carted off the field as a safety precaution. Jackson's teammates, Coach Andy Reid, and ESPN's Adam Schefter have all reported that Jackson will be fine. He's currently listed as day-to-day, but expect him to be back on the field improving his rapport with new QB Kevin Kolb very
soon.
Outlook: This changes nothing for Jackson, and his current ADP of 28 overall is way too low. Expect this to be the season D-Jax develops into the elite receiver. If you can get him late 2nd round or early in round 3 of your fantasy football draft, take him. and reap the benefits.
Knowshon Moreno (hamstring):
Denver's second year running back went down Saturday with what was initially reported as a hamstring tear. CBS.com later reported on Sunday that his MRI showed no significant tear in his right hamstring, and the injury was downgraded to a hamstring strain. He's still likely to miss the next three weeks, but will be ready to go before the regular season opens.
Outlook: Again, nothing to worry about here except the sophmore slump. The rest actually should be a positive, as the less carries now should keep him fresh longer during the season. Many experts are expecting Moreno to become a star this season, and I'm not disagreeing with them. The former University of Georgia standout should be a high quality RB2, and could upgrade to an RB1 if he has the breakout season many have envisioned. Also, the Bronco's signing of LenDale White is of minor concern. He may not even make the final cuts, but if he does, the worst-case scenario is that he steals a few goal line carries.
Dez Bryant (ankle):
Bad luck here. Bryant got off to a great start (minus the pads incident with Roy Williams), developing a great chemistry with quarterback Tony Romo and impressing everyone involved with the Cowboys' organization. But a high ankle sprain has sidelined him for the next 4-6 weeks, and he is currently listed as questionable for the season opener vs. Washington on September 12th. But Tony Romo believes in his young receiver, stating "We're lucky it's just a high ankle sprain and not something more severe. But he'll be back, and he'll be ready to go. He's a hard-working kid, and he'll be ready." And Romo is right, Bryant is still hard at work, catching passes on the sidelines wearing a boot, then watching the offense run through plays while getting details from various coaches.
Outlook: While this is a few steps back, don't be too concerned. He may miss the first game, but he'll most definitely be back in time for a week 2 showing against the Bears. It won't take a player of his caliber long to get the timing down with his QB,and he should be a nice WR2 by week 5 at the latest.
Cadillac Williams (ankle):
The positive: It wasn't a knee injury, which Cadillac has had problems with in the past(both knees have been surgically repaired). On Sunday, Williams suffered what the training staff and head coach Raheem Morris called a mild high ankle sprain. He's likely to be out until the Bucs' second preseason game against Kansas City on August 21st. Tampa Bay will likely limit his carries until the regular season, but by then he should be ready to roll. The negative: This will open the door for Derrick Ward to impress the coaching staff, and could lead to him stealing a larger share of the workload than expected.
Outlook: Remember, Ward rushed for over 1,000 yards as a member of the Giants in 2008, so keep an eye on him for the next few weeks. Cadillac will still be a viable RB2 in 2010, but if his counterpart steals too many carries, it moves him down the ranking a bit. But at his current ADP of 95, he's still a great pick in rounds 8-10.
Montario Hardesty (knee):
Another tough shake, Hardesty went down Thursday with a twisted knee, and will miss "a couple weeks" according to Browns' head coach Eric Mangini. This further muddles the Cleveland backfield situation, although temporarily. The team will likely ease him back in slowly, as he had a history of knee issues during his days at Tennessee. He'll likely be out until the second preseason game against St. Louis, but he should be the number one back for the Browns come opening day.
Outlook: This could result in a timeshare for a few weeks, as Jerome Harrison had three straight 100 yard rushing games at the end of last season. Do not doubt that Hardesy is the Cleveland back to own, but be wary of Harrison. A few big games could tilt the workload into his favor.
Well, that's all for this week. If you want information on any other injuries, or have a question about a player your interested in, leave a comment, or ask me directly via our new Facebook page. See you next week.
Training Camps are here! The Cleveland Browns were the first to open camp on July 23rd, and over the next week, all other teams will be following suit. The Colts and Giants will be the last teams to begin, with their camp start dates on August 1st. These are the times that returning veteran's get back to peak physical condition, offseason trades and rookies learn to subtleties of their team's offense, and players battle for starting positions or an increased share of the workload. This is VERY important for fantasy owners because it has implications that can affect everything from your draft strategy to your fantasy football league's championship game. this weeks post is a look at some of the training camp battles that have either started already, or will in the next week. They should be explosive.
Marion Barber vs. Felix Jones:
Everyone seems to be assuming Felix Jones is the guy in Dallas this year. For some reason, these people are counting out Marion Barber, who has recently garnered a lot of buzz about hisshape coming into camp. Today, he showed up at 214lbs, 4 pounds lighter than Felix Jones. Barber is healthy, in great shape, and is still the number one back. A split timeshare will likely be in order, but with Barber's strong, bruising style of running, he'll still get the goal line work. And in case you forgot, Barber can run like hell when healthy. Felix Jones may still win the starting role, but a strong showing by Barber could put him back into the role he played best: 3rd down, goal line, change of pace, and the Cowboys finisher in the 4th quarter.
Jamaal Charles vs. Thomas Jones:
Nobody panic! I'm still very high on Charles; but I think TJ might get more touches than most people seem to think. Yes, he's almost 32, and he had 330 carries last year. But this guy is a freak of nature. Charles will be the No.1 back in Kansas City, but Jones will likely earn carries as a 3rd down back and at the goal line if he proves during camp that he hasn't lost a step yet. Jamaal Charles though, will get the majority of the carries due to his singular level of talent and playmaking ability.
Dez Bryant vs. Roy Williams:
Now by this point, most everyone is certain that Dez Bryant will be the No. 2 WR in Dallas. This will be an interesting training camp battle because if Bryant performs as phenomenally as expected, he may push Williams all the way out of Dallas. And Williams knows it. The Rookie has already called his shot by refusing to carry Roy Williams' pads in the traditional "rookie hazing" that takes place all over the NFL. Roy, be careful because you rock the boat too much with this young stud, and good ol' Jerry Jones WILL get rid of you. Ask T.O.
Jerome Harrison vs. Montario Hardesty:
Another backfield duo that's sure to duke it out during training camp, Harrison and Hardesty are likely to split carries during the season. I still see Montario Hardesty getting about 60 percent of the carries at the least though, making him the RB to own in fantasy football leagues. Harrison put up great numbers at the end of last year, but on way too many carries. He's just not built to be an every down back, whereas Hardesty has all the physical tools and playmaking ability to have a huge impact in Cleveland.
CJ Spiller vs. Fred Jackson vs. Marshawn Lynch:
This is one of the most intriguing training camp battles to me. Honestly, I don't think Fred Jackson is the running back they're looking for in Buffalo. If he was, the team would have cut Lynch. Jackson's numbers are even less impressive when you notice that almost half of his yardage (474) came in three games: Versus the Bucs, the Chiefs, and the Colt in week 17, when the towel boys put on the blue and white to rest the starters. It should be a battle between Spiller and Jackson for the majority of the carries, then another battle between Lynch and Jackson for the 3rd down and goal line work. Somehow I see Jackson becoming the odd man out here.
Clinton Portis vs. Larry Johnson:
And so, the plot thickens...back in April, Larry Johnson told USA Today that he expected to win the starting job from Clinton Portis. Today, bleacherreport.com stated that the 'Skins were expecting Portis to be back in Pro Bowl form. I completely agree with the bleachers on this one. Mike Shanahan had come to town, and Portis is drinking Shanny's Kool-Aid. He also accepted his new coaches conditioning challenge, and showed up to camp 13lbs lighter than last season's 230. He's doing everything right, his coach has his back, and this guy will do great things this season. The only reason this is a duel to watch is to see how much of the workload LJ can get during the season. And as for Willie Parker? He may not even make the roster.
Terrance Cody vs. His Weight:
Well if you haven't heard, earlier today 2nd round draft pick Terrance Cody was told by the Ravens that he could not participate in training camp because he wasn't in good enough shape. Now, that raises some concerns about his work ethic, but I don't think that is the case here. Cody has struggled with his weight all of his life, but he's always gotten it down. Think of him as a UFC heavyweight fighter: he goes back up to his normal weight during off time, but he always gets it back down in time for the big show. I'm sure he'll make it to camp soon.
Don't make that face at me. MJD will get this done. Last season, with a bad passing game, really bad defense, and even worse O-line, he still managed to gain 1,391 yards on the ground, and averaged 4.5 YPC. This year, the Jags are a little different. Last season's two rookie linemen, Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton, have a year under their belts. Veterans Kynan Forney and Justin Smiley were added in the offseason, providing a depth on the O-line the Jags haven't had before. David Garrard is looking to improve this season, and the evolution of Mike Sims-Walker should unload the box some this season against the run. I'm predicting close to 1,800 yards and an average of 5.3 YPC. Put it in the books. If you don't believe me, just look at what MJD is capable of.
Last season, Dallas put all the pieces together at the right time, going 8-3 after their week six bye. Their defense stepped up, Miles Austin became a monster Wide receiver, and guys like Mike Jenkins and Anthony Spencer became leaders. Look for that to continue this season, as the defense should be even better this season, and Dez Bryant gives a versatile offense another weapon to force opposing D's to consider. They also managed to beat the Eagles 34-14 in the opening round of the playoffs, notching their first playoff win since 1996. They're looking to expand on that, and don't be surprised when the 'Boys show up in the NFC championship game. I'll be the guy on this website typing "I told you so." And in case you forgot just how good Dallas can be, here's a reminder: Their week 15 victory over the eventual world champion Saints.
Does anyone still believe the hoopla about Brett Farve toying with retirement? Look, if he were retiring, he wouldn't have had ankle surgery during the offseason. Let's call it what it is: An old guy that doesn't want to go through training camp. He'll be back on the field for the Vikes, and he'll be trying to get them back to within a game of the Super Bowl. Honestly, I don't mind the old fella skipping training camp, as long as he can still do this.
