Tuesday, July 27, 2010

And so it begins: Training camp battles to watch

Training Camps are here! The Cleveland Browns were the first to open camp on July 23rd, and over the next week, all other teams will be following suit. The Colts and Giants will be the last teams to begin, with their camp start dates on August 1st. These are the times that returning veteran's get back to peak physical condition, offseason trades and rookies learn to subtleties of their team's offense, and players battle for starting positions or an increased share of the workload. This is VERY important for fantasy owners because it has implications that can affect everything from your draft strategy to your fantasy football league's championship game. this weeks post is a look at some of the training camp battles that have either started already, or will in the next week. They should be explosive.

Marion Barber vs. Felix Jones:


Everyone seems to be assuming Felix Jones is the guy in Dallas this year. For some reason, these people are counting out Marion Barber, who has recently garnered a lot of buzz about his shape coming into camp. Today, he showed up at 214lbs, 4 pounds lighter than Felix Jones. Barber is healthy, in great shape, and is still the number one back. A split timeshare will likely be in order, but with Barber's strong, bruising style of running, he'll still get the goal line work.  And in case you forgot, Barber can run like hell when healthy. Felix Jones may still win the starting role, but a strong showing by Barber could put him back into the role he played best: 3rd down, goal line, change of pace, and the Cowboys finisher in the 4th quarter.



Jamaal Charles vs. Thomas Jones:

Nobody panic! I'm still very high on Charles; but I think TJ might get more touches than most people seem to think. Yes, he's almost 32, and he had 330 carries last year. But this guy is a freak of nature. Charles will be the No.1 back in Kansas City, but Jones will likely earn carries as a 3rd down back and at the goal line if he proves during camp that he hasn't lost a step yet. Jamaal Charles though, will get the majority of the carries due to his singular level of talent and playmaking ability.





Dez Bryant vs. Roy Williams:

Now by this point, most everyone is certain that Dez Bryant will be the No. 2 WR in Dallas. This will be an interesting training camp battle because if Bryant performs as phenomenally as expected, he may push Williams all the way out of Dallas. And Williams knows it. The Rookie has already called his shot by refusing to carry Roy Williams' pads in the traditional "rookie hazing" that takes place all over the NFL. Roy, be careful because you rock the boat too much with this young stud, and good ol' Jerry Jones WILL get rid of you. Ask T.O.



Jerome Harrison vs. Montario Hardesty:


Another backfield duo that's sure to duke it out during training camp, Harrison and Hardesty are likely to split carries during the season. I still see Montario Hardesty getting about 60 percent of the carries at the least though, making him the RB to own in fantasy football leagues. Harrison put up great numbers at the end of last year, but on way too many carries. He's just not built to be an every down back, whereas Hardesty has all the physical tools and playmaking ability to have a huge impact in Cleveland.



CJ Spiller vs. Fred Jackson vs. Marshawn Lynch:


This is one of the most intriguing training camp battles to me. Honestly, I don't think Fred Jackson is the running back they're looking for in Buffalo. If he was, the team would have cut Lynch. Jackson's numbers are even less impressive when you notice that almost half of his yardage (474) came in three games: Versus the Bucs, the Chiefs, and the Colt in week 17, when the towel boys put on the blue and white to rest the starters.  It should be a battle between Spiller and Jackson for the majority of the carries, then another battle between Lynch and Jackson for the 3rd down and goal line work. Somehow I see Jackson becoming the odd man out here.











Clinton Portis vs. Larry Johnson:




And so, the plot thickens...back in April, Larry Johnson told USA Today that he expected to win the starting job from Clinton Portis. Today, bleacherreport.com stated that the 'Skins were expecting Portis to be back in Pro Bowl form. I completely agree with the bleachers on this one. Mike Shanahan had come to town, and Portis is drinking Shanny's Kool-Aid. He also accepted his new coaches conditioning challenge, and showed up to camp 13lbs lighter than last season's 230. He's doing everything right, his coach has his back, and this guy will do great things this season. The only reason this is a duel to watch is to see how much of the workload LJ can get during the season. And as for Willie Parker? He may not even make the roster.



Terrance Cody vs. His Weight:

Well if you haven't heard, earlier today 2nd round draft pick Terrance Cody was told by the Ravens that he could not participate in training camp because he wasn't in good enough shape. Now, that raises some concerns about his work ethic, but I don't think that is the case here. Cody has struggled with his weight all of his life, but he's always gotten it down. Think of him as a UFC heavyweight fighter: he goes back up to his normal weight during off time, but he always gets it back down in time for the big show. I'm sure he'll make it to camp soon.








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Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Rookies: Ready to haze the Veterans

Welcome back, everyone. Before I get into today's topic, It's been announced that Titan's RB Chris Johnson has agreed in principle to a newly revised deal for this season. That does move him up a few spots in my Fantasy RB rankings, but that still doesn't put him in my top five. I promise, the 2,000 yard curse is real. But we're not talking about that any more this week. This week, we're talking about rookies. Not the ride-the-pine for a season or two rookies; the I'm here now, watch the f*#! out rookies. Here are some of my favorite rookies, guys that can definitely help you in your chase for a fantasy title.


Ryan Matthews: Ok, pretty obvious. The guy gets to step right into LT's old job, with LT's old workload. Expect big things from this guy. 1,200+ yards and 8-10TD's big. Also, he may have one of the nastiest stiff-arms in the league.




Dez Bryant: Another guy in a great situation. One of the most talented prospects in the 2010 draft, Bryant managed to land on a team with a great QB, solid run game, an elite receiver to line up opposite of him, and no other wideout on the roster to seriously challenge him for the WR2 spot. Roy Williams, your career just took a nosedive. He may have to best hands since Cris Carter. And Jeff Ireland, he'll make your mother a prostitute.




Montario Hardesty: This guy has the opportunity to be HUGE in Cleveland. During the June 3rd OTA's, Hardesty was taking the snaps as the No. 1 RB. He's already drawn comparisons to Jamal Lewis, with his size, strength, and aggressive running style. He already has a year of Pro-syle offense under his belt(thanks, Lane Kiffin, at least you did something positive at UT), so even in a split share with Jerome Harrison, he'll have big fantasy value(Jake Delhomme will be the starting QB. Expect the Browns to run a lot).



Jahvid Best: Have you seen this guy play? He's phenomenal! An absolute playmaker, and he'll most likely get the nod to start, especially with Kevin Smith's injury status(torn ACL, surgery in Dec.) likely to limit his touches in camp, if he even plays during the Lion's training camp. Jahvid Best has been the guy everyone involved with the Lions has been talking about, and even with Kevin Smith taking some of the carries as the 2nd RB, expect big numbers from this guy. He's got the upside to be the next Chris Johnson.





CJ Spiller: I've said it before, and I'll say it again: The Bills wouldn't have ignored more pressing needs(OT, QB) to grab this guy if they didn't plan on making him THE guy at some point this season. The guy is a monster playmaker, runs like he's powered by a nuclear battery, and can get it done in every way possible. He can run, catch, return, hell he even threw a few TD's in college(lightbulb, Buffalo). The Bills will find a way to get Spiller his touches, and you'll want him on your team when he gets them. Especially now that he and Eric Berry are wearing the lightest cleat in football





Jermaine Gresham: Another great playmaker(with monster hands)coming into a great situation. He'll be the starting TE, catching passes from Carson Palmer on a playoff team trying to improve. Worst-case(barring injury, of course), JG puts up 550 yards and 3TDs. Worst-case. He could go 700-800 with 6 or 7 scores though, which is what I'm expecting.





Aaron Hernandez: Now, I'm a Florida guy. And a huge Gator fan. But Hernandez is on this list because he's got the talent. And he'll be the starter for New England very shortly, possibly in week 1. Gronkowski, the Pat's other rookie TE, is more of a blocker than anything else. Yes he can catch, but he's not going anywhere else. Hernandez excels in the passing game, is a polished route runner, and is a better all-around athlete. Expect him to get the looks from Tom Brady.



Other rookies of note:

WR Demaryius Thomas, WR Golden Tate, RB Ben Tate, WR Arrelious Benn, WR Eric Decker

IDP Rookies to own:

FS Eric Berry, CB Joe Haden, LB Rolando McLain, DT Ndamukong Suh, DE Derrick Morgan, S Taylor Mays, S Earl Thomas






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Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Through the Gap: Running backs to keep

Well ladies, I'm back, and I've got your fix for this week. We're focusing on the most talked about position in Fantasy football too: The Running back slots. Now pretty much every owner in your league will get a premier back in your draft's opening round (except for the idiot who takes Rodgers or Brees, and the guy who doesn't like the RB's left and takes Andre Johnson). The hard part is getting that second and third running back, the one who rounds out your starting lineup, and the one that'll be coming off the bench when you need him. Believe it or not, but winning the game on your star's bye week can be the difference between fantasy playoffs and being in 7th place(that means your season's done, loser). Below, I've listed some backs that can properly replace an AP or Michael Turner on their bye weeks, as well as put up solid numbers throughout the season.

Beanie Wells: Well, Warner's retired. No more 35-40 passes per game. Boldin's gone too. So the run game is set to see a major jump in attempts per game. Wells outran Tim Hightower last year, and became the majority shareholder of the Cardinals' backfield at the close of the season. That trend will continue this year, with Wells getting more and more carries as the season progresses. He finished last season with 131 fantasy points(traditional scoring), just 11 points behind Hightower. With the majority of the workload, 200+ points isn't out of reach for this dynamic playmaker.




Carnell (Cadillac) Williams:



Yeah, remember Cadillac? He looked like an up and coming nightmare until his injury problems. Last year though, he made a modest comeback. This year, he's likely to be back in '05 form. Expect at least 1,000+ yards and 5 TD's out of this guy. The Cadillac is back, and looking to run over something.


Ahmad Bradshaw: Last season, Bradshaw(not Terry, the other one) was obviously the better player lining up behind Eli. He averaged 4.8 YPC, compared to Jacobs 3.7. He also scored two more touchdowns, and is a far superior pass-catcher. He should get the biggest share of the workload this season. Jacobs will probably steal most of the goal line work, but this guy can find the endzone. Helmet optional.

Justin Forsett: Need I say more? Probably, seeing as to how the Seahawks were terrible last year, so only die-hard fans paid any attention to football in Seattle. So here's the story. This guy showed flashes of greatness in the handful of carries he received prior to Julius Jones getting injured. Then he became football's da Vinci, sculpting images of his brilliance into the minds of anyone who saw him. don't believe me? See for yourself.



I told you. Anyway, last season, J-Force(My nickname for him. I'm patenting the S#!* out of it) finished just outside of the top 25, with only 3 starts and 5 games of split timeshare. This season he'll be the starter in Washington. Worst-case senarrio, he finishes 2010 just outside of the top ten. Best case, he's in the mix with AP, MJD, Ray Rice and company as one of the best Rb's in the league. Yeah, he's got that much potential.


Michael Bush: That's right, a Raider made this list. Um, I know they suck. The team is shit. But every once in a while you find a peanut in a terd, and this is it. Well, him. Last season, Davis and Cable did this guy no favors. They went with McFadden, and it blew up in their faces. Bush came in to start four games when McFadden was injured, and was given less than ten carries per game. He finished the season with 123 carries(To D Mac's 104, while missing 4 games) and averaged 4.8 YPC (3.4 for McFadden). He's clearly the better back, with McFadden having a more Reggie Bush type game. Expect Bush to be the starter, Thunder for McFadden's lightning. But expect the Thunder to have the greatest fantasy value.



That's it for this week people. Keep coming back, Daddy'll feed you. Remember, become a follower of this blog, and I'll answer your sit/start questions on game day all season long. email and I shall answer. Peace mofos.